Looking at energy drink Prime’s spectacular rise and dramatic fall, one number tells the entire story: a 12% repeat purchase rate.
While KSI and Logan Paul were celebrating their viral marketing success, their customers were quietly walking away after that first purchase. The difference between a $1.2 billion phenomenon and a 70% revenue collapse? Understanding what customers actually want versus what they say they want. And Prime certainly had its share of controversy, not to mention the fact that people didn’t always like how it tasted.
This is where market research becomes invaluable—not the kind that asks teenagers what energy drink they’d buy (they’ll always say the trendy one), but the kind that reveals the deeper truth about behavior, loyalty, and long-term value, the true drivers of consumer choice.
The Questions Prime Never Asked
Smart market research would have uncovered Prime’s fatal flaws before they became expensive lessons:
- Why are kids buying Prime? The research would have revealed it was social currency, not taste preference. When you’re selling status, not satisfaction, your runway is limited.
- Who influences the purchase decision? Parents control grocery budgets, yet Prime’s controversies actively alienated the decision-makers while courting the influencers.
- What drives repeat purchases of beverages? Function, taste, and habit, none of which Prime optimized for. They unknowingly built a brand for first-time buyers in a category that lives on loyalty.
The Segment Blindness
Prime treated “young people” as one massive, homogeneous market. But taste preferences shift dramatically even within narrow age bands. A 13-year-old’s beverage choice differs vastly from a 16-year-old’s, and what appeals to boys may repel girls entirely.
Proper market research reveals these micro-segments. It shows you that the 13-year-olds driving your initial sales may age out of your brand in 18 months. It reveals that parents of 8-year-olds view caffeine differently than parents of 14-year-olds. It uncovers the reality that distribution without demographic precision is just expensive shelf space.
Virality is a moment. Sustainability is a business model.
The Loyalty Delusion
Awareness isn’t loyalty. Virality is a moment. Sustainability is a business model. Prime confused noise for signal.
Market research distinguishes between customers who buy once for the experience and customers who buy repeatedly for the value. It reveals the difference between borrowed interest (celebrity endorsement) and earned interest (product superiority).
The Hard Questions
Here’s what separates successful entrepreneurs from failed ones: the willingness to ask uncomfortable questions before the market forces the answers.
- Are we solving a real problem or manufacturing a temporary desire?
- Will customers choose us when the hype fades?
- Are we building for our ego or our customers’ needs?
- What happens when our celebrity founders move on to their next venture?
Here’s what separates successful entrepreneurs: the willingness to ask uncomfortable questions before the market forces the answers.
The Thrum Difference
At Thrum, we specialize in the questions that sometimes hurt to ask and the answers that hurt to hear. We dig past the surface enthusiasm to find the bedrock of genuine demand. We identify the segments that matter, the loyalty drivers that last, and the strategic blind spots that can kill.
Smart entrepreneurs know that market research isn’t about confirming what you want to believe—it’s about discovering what you need to know. Because the market always tells the truth. The question is whether you’re listening.
Perhaps Prime’s collapse wasn’t inevitable. It was predictable. The right questions, asked early enough, could have saved them from building an empire on borrowed time.
What We’ve Learned
The most successful entrepreneurs aren’t the ones who never ask for help—they’re the ones who ask for help from the right people at the right time.
Market research isn’t about slowing you down. It’s about speeding up your learning curve, so you don’t have to repeat Prime’s trajectory.
Because the market will teach you everything you need to know, the question is whether you’ll learn it the easy way or the hard way.
If you’re building something that matters, it matters enough to understand deeply. And if you’re ready for that conversation, we’re here.
The rest, as always, is up to you.
