Marketing dashboards light up boardroom screens, analytics platforms spit out attribution models, and marketing teams obsess over tracking every click, view, and interaction. Yet here’s an uncomfortable truth: the actual moment someone decides to buy often has little to do with our carefully measured marketing efforts. Those who have worked with me have heard this time and time again. They’re likely tired of me asking, “What’s the ROI on knowing our ROI?” But it’s a good question. Too often, the answer is “nothing.”
 The Multi-Touch Mystery
Think about your own recent purchases. Maybe you finally booked that vacation after a casual conversation with a friend. Or you switched insurance providers because you happened to have free time one afternoon. Perhaps you chose a contractor simply because they returned your call first. I’ve even seen people look for “signs” as they enter into a purchase decision process and that special sunbeam did the trick.
The reality? Purchase decisions rarely follow the neat, trackable paths we desperately want to measure. A purchase is an emotional decision. And those are difficult to track and measure. A complex web of influences them:
- Random conversations
- Forgotten ads glimpsed months ago
- Subconscious brand impressions
- Timing and convenience (this is huge!)
- Immediate circumstances
- Pure chance (more common than we want to admit)
Why ROI Measurements Often Miss the Mark
Our sophisticated marketing tools face three fundamental challenges:
- The Attribution Illusion: We can track clicks and conversions, but we can’t measure the impact of a billboard someone drove past six months ago or a podcast they half-listened to while cooking. Billboards significantly influence some sectors with some demographics (I’m looking at you, my Millennial friends, and where you choose to eat or what show to go see).
- The Time Disconnect: The path from first awareness to purchase often spans months or years. By then, most tracking cookies have expired, and attribution windows have closed.
- The Human Factor: People aren’t robots following linear paths. Emotions, relationships, and random events often trigger purchases in ways no analytics dashboard can capture.
A More Honest Approach to Marketing Measurement
Instead of chasing perfect ROI measurements, consider:
- Focusing on building a consistent, memorable brand presence
- Accepting that not everything valuable can be measured
- Understanding that marketing’s role is often about being present when the moment is right
- Looking at longer-term trends rather than direct attribution
The Real ROI Question
Perhaps we’re asking the wrong question. Instead of asking, “What’s the ROI of each marketing tactic?” maybe we should ask, “Are we building a brand that people remember when they’re ready to buy?”
Ultimately, marketing isn’t about forcing immediate decisions. It’s about building mental availability—ensuring your brand comes to mind when the random, unmeasurable moment of decision arrives. (Thrum features a focus group package for our clients that helps them see the breadth and width of their brand’s influence and where it has gaps. Combined with a standard survey, this project gives executive leaders the insights they need for an entire year at one-third the cost of a full-time director.)
Moving Forward
Does this mean we should abandon ROI measurement entirely? Of course not. However, we should acknowledge its limitations and stop pretending we can attribute every sale to specific marketing touches. Sometimes, the best ROI comes from accepting that not everything that matters can be measured. Just ask me, the guy who makes a living measuring.
Connect with us to set up a no-obligation conversation to learn how Thrum can provide insights that transcend ROI.
